Andrew Wirtanen is a usability specialist in Cary, NC More »

Apple’s iTV: Doomed to Fail

Steve Jobs announced iTV this September as a way for your living room TV to display content from your computer. Simply put, iTV is a little box that will plug into your TV and play movies and songs from a computer with iTunes.

iTV will be about $300. I like the idea, but I really do not think it is going to work. Here is why:

• Apple has tried this before.
• People do not want another box in their home theater, and another remote in the living room. Even though it is small, iTV complicates things.
• Windows users do not have a lot of stuff in iTunes. If Apple decided to sell iPhoto and the other iLife applications for Windows, then this problem would not exist.
• iTunes does not have any HD content… and it probably will not for a while. Movies in HD are huge files, and expensive to move around. Movies you can currently buy on iTunes look like crap on an HDTV.
• It is not a DVR. As far as I know, iTV does not have a hard drive and will not be able to record TV.
• There is already enough content. We have upscaling DVD players, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players, new gaming systems (XBOX 360, PlayStation 3, Wii, etc.), and media center PCs.

I praise Apple for trying to solve the computer-TV convergence problem, but I do not think iTV is the solution. People will buy it, but mostly current Mac geeks.

I think the living room solution is one box that is a computer, DVR, DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-Ray player, and video game system. And it has to have one well-designed remote control.

[...] The year in tech may very well be decided at CES 2007 in January. My prediction is that the biggest impact of the conference will be the introduction of Wireless USB and Ultra-Wideband products. These technologies will eliminate the need (for example) to plug in printers to one’s computer, and provide the ability to stream HD content from one’s computer to one’s TV. In terms of websites, YouTube will continue to thrive, and MySpace will need to change dramatically to maintain its user base. If they don’t, my prediction is that everyone will finally migrate to another social networking site (to be determined). Apple’s “iPhone” project will be a huge success and change the cellphone market. By this time next year, your local Verizon, T-Mobile, and Cingular stores will be filled with cellphones trying to compete with Apple with fancy monikers (e.g. “RAZR” and “Chocolate”). Meanwhile, Apple’s iTV will fail for reasons I outlined in a prior post. Sony’s PS3 will also fail miserably, in one of the largest tech flops in history. Nintendo’s Wii gaming console will become increasingly popular with games that are fun and not hard to figure out and new features (e.g. a final release of their Web browser). My prediction is that Nintendo will lower the price to $199 and there will be a Wii under almost every Christmas tree in 2007. HD-DVD and Blu-ray will continue to duke out the high definition format war, and neither will win. The formats will go the way the of the LaserDisc if they do not cooperate. [...]

[...] I am going to continue to stand by my initial thoughts on the Apple TV, when I predicted its failure. It is pretty funny that the technology behind Apple TV has been around for a while now (from Netgear, D-Link, etc.), and now people are buying into once Apple slaps their name and interface on it (granted, it is a good interface from what I can tell). But, overall, this device will only be adopted by current Apple customers, despite the fact it also support Windows computers. [...]

[...] year, I predicted that Apple TV was going to fail. While I still may be right, my thoughts on the device have changed [...]

[...] and a half, but Apple has finally made the Apple TV (40GB $230; 160GB $320) worthwhile. Most of my original complaints are no longer valid, though I was correct in the device’s initial failure to grasp only but a [...]